On April 27, 2026, B3 launches a class of derivatives that did not previously exist in the regulated Brazilian market: event contracts — the institutional version of so-called "prediction markets." Six initial contracts, cash-settled, focused on two assets: bitcoin prices and currency movements.
This launch places Brazil on the map of a market that globally moved approximately $1 billion in volume in 2025, and which platforms like Kalshi (U.S.) and Polymarket (crypto) have popularized as a way to bet — or speculate — on the outcomes of future events.
What event contracts (prediction markets) are
A prediction market is a mechanism where participants trade the probability of an event occurring. The simplest form is a binary contract: you pay R$X today and receive R$100 if the event happens, or R$0 if it does not. The contract price implicitly reflects the market probability for that outcome.
For example: if a "Bitcoin above $100,000 in June 2026" contract is trading at R$35, the market is indicating that the implied probability of that event is 35%. Investors who believe the probability is higher than 35% buy. Those who believe it is lower sell.
B3 is launching the regulated version of this concept, called "binary event contracts":
- Cash settlement: no delivery of the underlying asset
- Fixed payoff: R$100 if the event occurs, R$0 if it does not
- Defined maximum risk: the buyer loses at most the premium paid; the seller loses at most the difference between R$100 and the premium received
The six contracts launching April 27
B3 did not disclose all details of each contract before publication, but CoinDesk and specialized platforms confirmed that the six initial contracts cover:
- Bitcoin prices at different levels and timeframes
- Currency movements (dollar-real) above or below specified levels
These two assets were chosen for their liquidity and the speculative interest already existing in the Brazilian market — bitcoin is the most sought-after asset by retail crypto investors, and the dollar-real exchange rate is the variable most closely followed by the investor community.
Who can trade: qualified investors with R$10 million+
Here is the most important restriction: B3's event contracts are intended exclusively for qualified investors — in the CVM's definition, individuals with more than R$10 million in financial investments. This category is known as "professional investor" in Brazilian regulation.
The CVM adopted this restriction for precautionary reasons: prediction markets are new instruments in Brazil, with high speculative potential, and the regulator opted to limit initial access to those with greater capacity to absorb losses and presumed greater financial sophistication.
This contrasts with Kalshi in the United States, which allows retail access, and with Polymarket, which operates on blockchain without effective regulatory restriction. In Brazil, the regulatory path is more conservative, but creates legitimacy that Polymarket lacks.
What academic research says about prediction markets
Prediction markets have a solid academic foundation. Pioneering studies by Robin Hanson (George Mason University) and research from the Iowa Electronic Markets — which has existed since 1988 — show that prediction markets tend to be more accurate than opinion polls in various contexts.
The reason is structural: those who bet money have an incentive to seek quality information before trading. An opinion poll collects perceptions without financial consequence for the respondent. A prediction market collects bets from people who genuinely believe in the outcome — and who lose money if they are wrong.
Data from 2024-2025:
- Polymarket correctly predicted election outcomes in multiple countries with accuracy superior to 90% of traditional polls
- Kalshi processed more than $500 million in volume in 2025 in the U.S. after receiving regulatory approval from the CFTC
- The Iowa Electronic Markets accumulates more than 35 years of history with systematically better results than polls
That said, prediction markets also have limitations: they are vulnerable to manipulation in low-liquidity markets, can amplify misguided narratives if many participants share the same bias, and the binary payoff does not capture the full complexity of continuous outcomes.
The global context: from Polymarket to B3
Polymarket is the most globally recognized prediction market platform, operating on blockchain (Polygon) with USDC as currency. In 2024 and 2025, Polymarket made headlines with record volumes in American and British elections, and by showing probabilities that frequently diverged from — and outperformed — traditional polls.
But Polymarket operates in a regulatory gray area in many countries, including Brazil. The CVM has never explicitly authorized Polymarket for Brazilians, though the platform is technically accessible.
B3 is doing the opposite: creating the instrument within the regulatory perimeter, with clear rules, settlement guaranteed by B3 itself, and CVM supervision. This brings credibility, but also restrictions — hence the limitation to qualified investors.
Risks that event contracts carry
1. Concentrated speculation: The binary payoff (all or nothing) is inherently speculative. For the buyer, losing 100% of the premium is the most common outcome if the event does not occur.
2. Liquidity: Initially, six contracts with a buyer base restricted to qualified investors may have low liquidity, creating wide spreads between buy and sell.
3. Manipulation risk: With low volume, large agents can move a contract's price disproportionately, distorting implied probabilities.
4. Operational complexity: Pricing implied probabilities requires understanding statistical concepts beyond what many conventional equity traders apply.
What this opens for the future
B3's event contract launch is more important as a precedent than for the volume it will initially generate. Once the regulatory infrastructure is established, it is natural to expect:
- Expansion to other assets: indices, commodities, macroeconomic events (GDP outcome, IPCA above X%)
- Potential opening to retail investors in a simplified version
- Integration with analysis platforms and probability pricing algorithms
- Emergence of an arbitrage market between B3 and Polymarket/Kalshi
A new frontier, with open eyes
Prediction markets are legitimate tools for price discovery and risk management. Their arrival in Brazil, in regulated format with initial access restrictions, is a positive evolution for the Brazilian capital market.
For qualified investors who will access these contracts on April 27, the recommendation of any serious analyst is the same that applies to any derivative: fully understand the mechanics before trading, size positions according to real loss tolerance, and treat the instrument as speculation — not investment.
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